Christie (R) won by 4.2%, substantially more than the 1.0% I predicted. On the other hand, Corzine (D) received 44.6% of the vote, quite close to the 44.5% VM-optimized polling average. Looks like it might be Daggett (I) supporters reclaiming the power of their vote.

Was I wrong about NY-23? Only two polls were available. They came before the full impact of Scozzafava (R)’s last-minute endorsement of Owens (D), which evidently worked. It’s a squeaker. Owens won by 4%. This is a lose-lose for Republicans: loss of the seat is a self-inflicted injury by the party’s unreconstructed right-wingers. Full results are here.