PEC (and polling) performance review, 2022

November 20, 2022 by Sam Wang

Generally, pre-election analytics did great, as long as they were driven by polling and election data. Here's a rundown of how we did.

In a nutshell, sticking close to data did great, but reporter and pundit priors tended to vitiate the exercise. Which leads to the question: what should you do with data? (Spoiler: don't watch the horserace, optimize your efforts!)

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The Petite Gerrymander of 2022

November 18, 2022 by Sam Wang

In the Atlantic yesterday, I had a piece that takes the tone "Think of the map as being balanced on a partisan basis." But in a local sense, one should get into the details - and those details do add up to a Republican advantage. Today, see my new Substack deep-dive getting into the fine details. Please comment there!

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The level national playing field in 2022

November 15, 2022 by Sam Wang

Now that the Congressional election is starting to settle out, it’s looking like Republicans will take control with a tiny majority. Contrary to some of what you're reading, their win is quite fair in a national sense. The easiest way to see this is with a simple scatter plot.

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Live thread on Election 2022

November 8, 2022 by Sam Wang

Open thread for those who celebrate.

11:03pm: New Hampshire Senate's called for Maggie Hassan (D-incumbent). Her margin appears to be something like 10 points better than pre-election polls. See my Twitter thread. I am not feeling a Republican wave. Possibly a tiny feeling in the opposite direction.

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