Princeton Election Consortium

Today, some local news. A dear colleague and friend, John Hopfield, today won the Nobel Prize in Physics for his contributions to the theory of neural networks and artificial intelligence. This is big for us here in the Princeton neuroscience community!

You don't always need all the science I described in my TED talk. In Campaign 2024, sometimes a hand calculator is enough.

Currently, four Senate races show polling margins within five points: Ohio, Nebraska, Florida, and Texas. The rest add up to 48 Democrats/Independents and 48 Republicans. Getting to 50 seats is currently a coin toss, with Republicans slightly favored. (That's what the R+1.0% in the banner means. The closeness of Senate control is expressed in terms of voter margin: if margins were shifted by 1.0 point toward Democrats, we'd have a perfect toss-up.) Where should you focus your energy? Depending on whether you are door-knocking or donating, the answer is different. Today, a brief note on how to factor in media costs.

As we all wait for tonight’s 9:00pm (Eastern) debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the Presidential race is apparently right on a knife edge. So are control of the Senate and the House. All three are within 1.5 percentage points of a perfect toss-up, which is within polling error. It is possible that Democrats end up in charge of all three. It is also possible for Republicans being in charge of all three.

No pressure.

We’re heading into a long weekend, but my report on the Senate poll snapshot is long overdue. We made two important updates this week.

First, we fixed an error - I'll write more on that at the end of today's piece. Second and more important, we added an important race, Nebraska. Nebraska has slipped under the national press’s radar. As it turns out, the race there is currently among the closest in the nation, closer than Texas and Florida. But in Nebraska, but an individual person's vote, time, and donations are at least 10 times as powerful than in those big states. It's a perfect demonstration of the Democracy Moneyball principle.