Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%) Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6% Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
On Monday afternoon at 3 p.m., the Commerce Department is expected to release the new apportionment from the 2020 Census. It will be posted here, and there will be a press conference on Census Live. Generally, southwestern states will win Congressional seats; the northeast and California will lose. There’s some uncertainty as to whether Alabama will lose 0 or 1 seat, and whether New York will lose 1 or 2 seats. The Census Project has an explainer. Finally, check out this deep dive into historical trends from CUNY’s Redistricting and You.
Update: And the answer is…neither! There are seven seat changes, the smallest of any year going back to 1910 (leaving out the failed reapportionment of 1920). For an overview see my Tweetstorm. More soon…
News reports are saying the Census's reapportionment numbers are a gain for Republicans, a loss for Democrats. A short thread on why this is not entirely true – and why the biggest uncertainties lie ahead, in redistricting.
I had a great conversation with Prof. Larry Lessig on his podcast, Another Way. We talked about the inequalities produced by gerrymandering and the Electoral College, and what Congress and the states can do to fight back. Please listen!
A positive development for the left in the last few years has been the renewed interest in running for downticket races. From Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to legislative candidates nationwide, such efforts are necessary for building a healthy political party.
Last week came a new claim that such efforts are not only directly useful, they can help the top of the ticket. However, this latest evidence for such “reverse coattails” needs some work before it’s ready for prime time. This is not to say that the claim is false. It’s more that the evidence is too preliminary to judge. In basic research, new claims get subjected to close scrutiny through the peer review process. I will offer some comments in that style. I hope they are constructive.[Read more →]
One of the most notable partisan gerrymanders in the country can be found in Wisconsin. But a repeat of the offense in 2021 can be prevented – with public input.
Governor Evers has formed a nonpartisan citizen commission to increase transparency and collect public input, regardless of whether the legislature intends to bypass him or not. If you are a Wisconsinite, we encourage you to make your voice heard. While Evers’ commission won’t have the final say, having your voice on the record could play a key role in potential future litigation.
This year will see a number of state-level legislative actions, as governments across the country look to change rules that affect the ability of voters to participate in elections.
One example may be found in the Utah House, which is considering Utah House Bill 197. HB 197 would significantly alter the election code of the state. Briefly, the law would mandate a change in how the state government processes voter registration forms. Any registration form submitted after March 31 would not be in effect for that year’s primary election.
Our analysis of Utah voter registration data indicates that support for the bill is motivated by a mistaken belief: that Republican registration in 2020 grew due to Democratic voters crossing over to manipulate the outcome of the 2020 Republican primary. Our research suggests that the growth of 2020 Republican registration comes from new registration and unaffiliated voters choosing to re-register. For an in-depth overview of this interesting and evolving topic, check out our Utah HB 197 memo, which is linked here.
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Revoking a variety of other Trump Administration policies, and…
Directing the Census to ensure a full and fair count. That’s great for fair districting! Still some threat at the state level for noncitizen data, though.
Follow the Biden Administration’s actions at the White House Briefing Room.
Today at noon, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated as President and Vice-President. In addition to all the new policies and priorities they will implement and develop, it’s a relief. Over the last four years, democracy hit a modern low point. Now we face a long challenge: how to repair our system and make it better. [Read more →]
State Representative Gary Tauchen (R) has introduced a bill in the Wisconsin General Assembly to change the way electoral votes are allocated. Instead of a winner-take-all system, his proposal would dole them out by congressional districts. At first, this plan looks like it would help Republicans. But the real long-term beneficiaries might be Democrats— and take Wisconsin off the national stage for Presidential elections. [Read more →]
Final results: Warnock (D) and Ossoff (D) win, giving Democrats 50 seats in the Senate and control of the chamber. (NYT)
In Georgia, first Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. Now we have two competitive Senate races. Polls show the Democratic candidates, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, leading their opponents by a few points. If they pull off wins (and even if they only come close) they can thank early voting – and trends that may make 2020 for Georgia what 2008 was for Virginia.
First, let’s look at the data. Unlike the rest of the country, general-election polls in Georgia did pretty well. [Read more →]
I had a great conversation with Prof. Larry Lessig on his podcast, Another Way. We talked about the inequalities produced by gerrymandering and the Electoral College, and what Congress and the states can do to fight back. Please 
