Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Oct 21: Biden 353 EV (D+5.2% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.1%), House control D+5.0%
Moneyball states: President NV AZ PA, Senate AK MT IA, Legislatures KS TX NC

Minnesota Senate Candidates Pledge To Fight Gerrymandering

October 20th, 2020, 5:06pm by Zachariah Sippy

Six Minnesota State Senate candidates have pledged to fight against gerrymandering and unfair districting if elected, the nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project announced today.

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→ 1 CommentTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Fairer districting in November for one-fourth of all House districts?

October 20th, 2020, 8:23am by Sam Wang

Wherever you are, there are so many reasons to vote. We have resources in the right sidebar. See the PEC 50-State Voter Guide. Also at other sites, see Taniel’s What’s on the Ballot? and Stephen Colbert’s Better Know A Ballot.

Today, I have a rundown of all the ways you can make a difference in redistricting fairness in nine states: Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Connecticut. Combined, these states are expected to have a total of 106 House seats, nearly one-fourth of the chamber. And it is possible for you to help, even if you don’t live in one of those states. [Read more →]

→ 3 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · House · Redistricting

Is a Biden win good for financial markets?

October 17th, 2020, 1:27pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been talking with analysts and risk managers at major financial firms. They don’t seem to be very focused on the stability of our democratic system. But they do like to talk about markets. Their outlook is strongest for single-party control of Congress, since that leads to Congressional action on covid-19 relief and economic stimulus. Further substantial lawmaking will likely require doing away with the legislative filibuster, but it is said that five Democratic Senators are against such a change. So unless some of those Senators change their minds, Democrats would need to get to at least 55 seats to do away with that rule.

Here’s a look by JP Morgan analysts at the Presidential race. After looking at undecided voters (the lowest in 50 years) and likely polling error, they conclude that a Trump win is about as likely as a double-digit win by Biden.

One question on my mind these days: how long might single-party Democratic control last? Based on upcoming races, 50-51 Senate seats gets them to 2022, but maybe not further. 52 seats or more seems likely to get them to 2024. Another question: how long will conservative dominance of the Supreme Court last? That’s both a political and a demographic question. More coming soon.

→ 15 CommentsTags: 2020 Election

Three-fourths of Biden votes will be cast before Election Day

October 11th, 2020, 9:53am by Sam Wang

A recent (October 6-9) ABC/Washington Post poll (see story) captures a disconnect between Election Day and pre-Election Day voting. [Read more →]

→ 27 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · President


October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

A Classic Rock Twofer Tuesday PlaylistWith three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting.

Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two. [Read more →]

→ 6 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

Slow (downticket) train coming

October 6th, 2020, 5:24pm by Sam Wang

In surveys conducted October 1-4, surveys show Biden up by a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage points (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If sustained, that’s a larger popular margin than Obama 2008 (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The last larger win was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points).

The Presidential Meta-Margin, on the other hand, is now only Biden +5.5%. It’s based on state polls, which aren’t as fresh as national polls. The typical gap between the Meta-Margin and the national margin has been 2-3 points, which is a measure of Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College. If this holds up, once state polls catch up we might expect the Meta-Margin to hit Biden +7% or +8%.

What will be the downticket effects? The consequences could affect as many as 5 Senate races, 6 state legislatures, and redistricting of over 90 House seats for a decade. [Read more →]

→ 21 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · House · President · Redistricting · Senate

Eagleton Institute Event: Understanding the Proposed N.J. Constitutional Amendment

October 6th, 2020, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

COVID-19 has delayed the U.S. Census and will complicate next year’s scheduled redrawing of legislative lines. In response, the New Jersey state legislature passed ACR188, a bill that would delay the redistricting process.

While all states will be affected by the prospect census data arriving later than expected in 2021, New Jersey and Virginia are unique, as they will hold state legislative elections that fall. Here’s our deep dive into what Amendment 3 does to fair representation, and whether it’s even necessary. [Read more →]

→ 1 CommentTags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Alaska, this year’s new swing state?

October 4th, 2020, 9:01am by Zachariah Sippy

CNAlysis ratings of AK House AK House predictions

Alaska is one of the most interesting states this November’s election. Not only is the state competitive in Presidential, Senate, and U.S. House elections, at the state level Democrats are fighting to retain control of the state House and prevent a Republican trifecta. [Read more →]

→ 6 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Politics · President · Senate

Sam on The New Abnormal (again)

October 2nd, 2020, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

Molly Jong-Fast and Rick Wilson had me back on their podcast, The New Abnormal! So pleased that they had me back. Molly is total fun, and so disrespectful. We talked elections of course, with a focus on Moneyball 2020.

Many of you are focused on the Senate (which is swinging toward Democrats, thanks to Alaska and Kansas), but please pay attention to Redistricting Moneyball as well. Over 90 House seats could come under bipartisan redistricting – that’s more than one-fifth of the chamber, for 10 years. It’s equally important as the Senate. I discussed optimized giving, like we have in the right sidebar.

Take a listen! Stitcher, Apple, and I Heart Radio, a few of many places.

→ 6 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · House · Moneyball · Redistricting · Senate

An “effective altruism” approach to the election

September 28th, 2020, 3:21am by Sam Wang

September 29: Modified to take into account change in Florida ratings.

If you’ve been giving to races we’ve identified as high voter power, you may have noticed that once in a while, we make small changes. The reason is that our best estimate of return on investment responds to events or additional analysis. We will continue to follow this process until November 3. If you have more to give, I recommend checking once a week.

Today we introduce a new criterion, how well races are already funded, information that our friends at Data2ThePeople have been investigating. [Read more →]

→ 14 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Redistricting · Senate