Geek's Guide to the Election 2024
The 2024 PEC Geek's Guide to the Election is here. Let's use this entry at the Fixing Bugs in Democracy site for an open thread. (No subscription required, it's free.)
Liveblog below.
A final snapshot and House prediction
It is inevitable that polls will have some error. Averaging does not solve the problem since it only reduces error arising from sampling a population. Averaging does not eliminate systematic error.
Recently FiveThirtyEight wrote about total overall error in polls. Unfortunately, they didn’t distinguish random from systematic error. Systematic error arises from differences between who pollsters think will vote, compared with who actually votes. Every pollster has their own view of this subject. In the aggregate their judgment is better than they are individually. But that average can differ from what actually happens. That difference is systematic error.
Herding, or judgment?
After all the canvassing, donation, and activism, tonight now we observe. Later this afternoon I will publish the Princeton Election Consortium biennial Geek’s Guide to the election. It will detail what I will be watching.
This is also an open thread - please chime in. I may host a Zoom call tonight as well - stay tuned.
Last-minute activity
Lovely unseasonable weather out here on the East Coast. Get out there to a swing House district!
Some systematic error in polls is inevitable. Mathematically, it's highly likely that the election will be less close. Which way? I will analyze that later today. Right now it's time to act while the sun shines!