Princeton Election Consortium

Generally, pre-election analytics did great, as long as they were driven by polling and election data. Here's a rundown of how we did.

In a nutshell, sticking close to data did great, but reporter and pundit priors tended to vitiate the exercise. Which leads to the question: what should you do with data? (Spoiler: don't watch the horserace, optimize your efforts!)

In the Atlantic yesterday, I had a piece that takes the tone "Think of the map as being balanced on a partisan basis." But in a local sense, one should get into the details - and those details do add up to a Republican advantage. Today, see my new Substack deep-dive getting into the fine details. Please comment there!

Now that the Congressional election is starting to settle out, it’s looking like Republicans will take control with a tiny majority. Contrary to some of what you're reading, their win is quite fair in a national sense. The easiest way to see this is with a simple scatter plot.

Open thread for those who celebrate.

11:03pm: New Hampshire Senate's called for Maggie Hassan (D-incumbent). Her margin appears to be something like 10 points better than pre-election polls. See my Twitter thread. I am not feeling a Republican wave. Possibly a tiny feeling in the opposite direction.