Welcome back, Princeton Election Consortium fans. We're back, and so is the Geek's Guide to the Election!
I'm full-time posting over at Fixing Bugs in Democracy. But as you can see, the polling snapshot is back. Here’s what it shows for today:
The 2024 PEC Geek's Guide to the Election is here. Let's use this entry at the Fixing Bugs in Democracy site for an open thread. (No subscription required, it's free.)
Liveblog below.
It is inevitable that polls will have some error. Averaging does not solve the problem since it only reduces error arising from sampling a population. Averaging does not eliminate systematic error.
Recently FiveThirtyEight wrote about total overall error in polls. Unfortunately, they didn’t distinguish random from systematic error. Systematic error arises from differences between who pollsters think will vote, compared with who actually votes. Every pollster has their own view of this subject. In the aggregate their judgment is better than they are individually. But that average can differ from what actually happens. That difference is systematic error.
After all the canvassing, donation, and activism, tonight now we observe. Later this afternoon I will publish the Princeton Election Consortium biennial Geek’s Guide to the election. It will detail what I will be watching.
This is also an open thread - please chime in. I may host a Zoom call tonight as well - stay tuned.
