Welcome to all the new readers. Traffic is booming. First, a brief update. Several weeks ago I showed that convention bounces (and other fluct...
Live thread on Election 2022
Open thread for those who celebrate.
11:03pm: New Hampshire Senate’s called for Maggie Hassan (D-incumbent). Her margin appears to be something like 10 points better than pre-election polls. See my Twitter thread. I am not feeling a Republican wave. Possibly a tiny feeling in the opposite direction.
11:49pm: OK, we have enough governor’s results to start using the PEC Polling Error Calculator. (FYI, it’s called a nomograph.) In Pennsylvania, Kansas, and Wisconsin, plotting actual margins (86-87% of vote counted) shows margins that are 1-2 points more Democratic than polls. This means that November D-minus-R margins slightly underestimated Democratic performance, at least so far. Need to wait for more vote-counting to be sure. One implication: Arizona governor (R+3% in polls) might be very close.
1:01am: Here’s the nomograph for Senate. Seems useful for Arizona and Nevada, which are near-ties. Don’t be surprised if Democrats get to 50 seats without Georgia, which appears to be headed for a December runoff.
Note that the election-denialist candidate for Secretary of State, Mark Finchem (R), is running with an almost identical margin as the Senate race between Kelly (D) and Masters (R). It’s quite possible that Finchem and Marchant (R-SoS Nevada) won’t make it.
With that, good night.