Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Geek’s Guide 2020, version 2.2 (Monday 10:30pm)

November 2nd, 2020, 10:07am by Sam Wang

Morning, everyone. One day to go. I’m holding at Fauci 2. You?

Here’s version 2.2 of the PEC Geek’s Guide To The Election. (doc, PDF) State legislative races have been added.

Other useful guides: the PEC 50-State Guide, Taniel’s What’s On The Ballot, and what David Leonhardt is watching.

In comments, please post your favorite places to get information tomorrow. And stay off the Garden State Parkway!

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Redistricting Spitball, Texas style

November 1st, 2020, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Update, 11/3: The federal judge dismissed the case. The votes will be counted! For Election Day, the Harris County clerk has left one drive-through voting center open, at the Toyota Center.

We created Redistricting Moneyball to identify places where votes are exceptionally valuable in their potential to affect Congressional redistricting. The idea was to enhance your activism by showing you where to get out the vote. Texas Republicans have taken the concept in the opposite direction: they are looking to invalidate 127,000 votes cast in Harris County, where some of the most influential voters in the nation live.

It’s a radical gambit. The suppression of votes is not Moneyball, but more like a spitball – against the spirit and rules of democracy. However, there is one advantage. It’s so focused that you may be able to mitigate possible effects by turning out the vote in a very small number of legislative districts. [Read more →]

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Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?

November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang

In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race?

Here is evidence that both can happen at once. It points toward the possibility that in close Senate races such as South Carolina, Iowa, and Montana, last-minute phone-banking, canvassing, and even (for Montana) same-day voter registration can be exceptionally valuable in moving a race. [Read more →]

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Senate

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.)

But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking and canvassing. [Read more →]

→ 10 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Ten proposals for bettering democracy

October 29th, 2020, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

In this year’s election, voters around the nation will decide on proposals to change how democracy works. At the Fulcrum, Sara Swann gives the rundown on ten of those proposals.

We’ve gone into some of them in depth. For example, the Virginia redistricting reform is reviewed over at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. Broadly, all of the ballot measures have positive qualities except for one. The exception is the Missouri measure, which pretty much undoes the “Clean Missouri” amendments of 2018. Around here we call it “Dirty Missouri.”

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk

October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang

Politics and Polls logoIn 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more trust in their process. Plus a few insights into the Iowa and Georgia Senate races. Fun nerdery. Tune in!

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Texas talk with Beto O’Rourke

October 28th, 2020, 11:45pm by Sam Wang

In the latest Fixing Bugs In Democracy, Beto O’Rourke and I dive into his efforts to flip the Texas House to Democrats and bring about bipartisan Congressional redistricting. I followed that up with a second guest, Dave Daley. Dave and I talked about Redistricting Moneyball, as well as a new tech tool for citizens to weigh in on their own communities, Representable. Check it out!

→ 2 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Redistricting Moneyball – train’s leaving!

October 27th, 2020, 9:35pm by Sam Wang

One week to Election Day. Time’s running out in various ways. For example, if you haven’t mailed your ballot yet, plan to either drop off your ballot or vote on Election Day. You can do it!

It’s also time to give one last push to state legislative races. [Read more →]

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The road leads back to you, sweet Georgia

October 26th, 2020, 9:20pm by Sam Wang

As I wrote the other day, federalism itself is on the ballot this year. Two notable events today with the Supreme Court demonstrate that point – and emphasize how important your activism is in shaping which way the nation goes. [Read more →]

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The Texas downticket, with Beto O’Rourke

October 26th, 2020, 5:00am by Zachariah Sippy

Join us on Tuesday at 5pm eastern for a conversation with former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)! In particular we will discuss the Lone Star State, as in the last year, O’Rourke has focused his efforts on flipping the Texas House.

After the conversation with O’Rourke, we’ll talk about tools being developed here at Princeton to empower citizens to get fair representation Redistricting Moneyball before the election, and after the election. We’ll be joined by Dave Daley!

At PEC, we have noted the importance of the Texas State House for redistricting next year in our Moneyball model. In fact, we find that there is no state with higher redistricting voter power than Texas.

After reapportionment in 2021, Texas is likely to gain 3 congressional seats, bringing its total to 39 (the second most in the nation.) If Democrats can gain 9 seats in the State House, they can prevent a Republican gerrymander. It is not an overstatement to say that numerous congressional seats are on the line.

You can RSVP to the event here. And watch it live on our Facebook here.

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