Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Nov 03: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Our Electoral Innovation Lab’s Twitter thread

November 3rd, 2020, 7:02pm by Sam Wang

A Twitter thread from the Electoral Innovation Lab team, plus a few people we’ve come to rely on. We’re watching state legislative races and democracy-reform ballot initiatives. Also some trackers: [Read more →]

Comments Off on Our Electoral Innovation Lab’s Twitter threadTags: 2020 Election

Last snapshot, 2020: President, Senate, legislatures

November 3rd, 2020, 5:55pm by Sam Wang

Today’s the last day of voting. In normal years we call it Election Day. This  year, it’s the day when the vote-counting begins.

Thanks to all the early voting, polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t yet, go vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place.

Here are some resources for tonight:

For now, let’s use this as the main PEC comment thread.

Specific details on races and final snapshots after the jump. [Read more →]

→ 2 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · House · Princeton · Redistricting · Senate

Politics & Polls #208: Election Day 2020

November 3rd, 2020, 2:06pm by Sam Wang

Politics and Polls logoThis morning Julian Zelizer and I went down memory lane…to our 2016 pre-election episode. It was an eye-opener. I talk about elections very differently now. We get into what to look for, what to be concerned about, and how to use polling data without being a passive observer. Take a listen!

→ 1 CommentTags: 2020 Election · Politics · Princeton

Avoiding conflict despite the Electoral College

November 3rd, 2020, 7:41am by Sam Wang

Don’t forget, the states in gold started counting their mail-in votes today or last night! [Read more →]

→ 22 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · President

Geek’s Guide 2020, version 2.2 (Monday 10:30pm)

November 2nd, 2020, 10:07am by Sam Wang

Morning, everyone. One day to go. I’m holding at Fauci 2. You?

Here’s version 2.2 of the PEC Geek’s Guide To The Election. (doc, PDF) State legislative races have been added.

Other useful guides: the PEC 50-State Guide, Taniel’s What’s On The Ballot, and what David Leonhardt is watching.

In comments, please post your favorite places to get information tomorrow. And stay off the Garden State Parkway!

→ 16 CommentsTags: 2020 Election

Redistricting Spitball, Texas style

November 1st, 2020, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Update, 11/3: The federal judge dismissed the case. The votes will be counted! For Election Day, the Harris County clerk has left one drive-through voting center open, at the Toyota Center.

We created Redistricting Moneyball to identify places where votes are exceptionally valuable in their potential to affect Congressional redistricting. The idea was to enhance your activism by showing you where to get out the vote. Texas Republicans have taken the concept in the opposite direction: they are looking to invalidate 127,000 votes cast in Harris County, where some of the most influential voters in the nation live.

It’s a radical gambit. The suppression of votes is not Moneyball, but more like a spitball – against the spirit and rules of democracy. However, there is one advantage. It’s so focused that you may be able to mitigate possible effects by turning out the vote in a very small number of legislative districts. [Read more →]

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?

November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang

In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race?

Here is evidence that both can happen at once. It points toward the possibility that in close Senate races such as South Carolina, Iowa, and Montana, last-minute phone-banking, canvassing, and even (for Montana) same-day voter registration can be exceptionally valuable in moving a race. [Read more →]

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Senate

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.)

But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking and canvassing. [Read more →]

→ 10 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Ten proposals for bettering democracy

October 29th, 2020, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

In this year’s election, voters around the nation will decide on proposals to change how democracy works. At the Fulcrum, Sara Swann gives the rundown on ten of those proposals.

We’ve gone into some of them in depth. For example, the Virginia redistricting reform is reviewed over at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. Broadly, all of the ballot measures have positive qualities except for one. The exception is the Missouri measure, which pretty much undoes the “Clean Missouri” amendments of 2018. Around here we call it “Dirty Missouri.”

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk

October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang

Politics and Polls logoIn 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more trust in their process. Plus a few insights into the Iowa and Georgia Senate races. Fun nerdery. Tune in!

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