Protected: Two ways to estimate primary outcomes without polls (transcript)
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Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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From Math with Bad Drawings comes this gem, depicting what probability means to a political journalist. “The threat is real.” Heh.
There’s a whole series of such drawings. Check them out!
The captain of the Millennium Falcon is a true Bayesian.
I tried doing one for bioinformatics but I couldn’t fit 500 categories to the left of 10^-50.
Hokey distributions and bad priors are no match for a good blaster at your side.
Thanks for the chuckle.
A friend who I sent the link to tells me of the “Theory of Possibility” which he learned in Control Theory at Carnegie Mellon. For example: What is the possibility that a plane will crash if your single point of failure fails? The possibility is one.
totally off topic, but has anyone done analysis on the Canadian election? I have not been checking here so i might have missed some posts.