Follow the evening’s results at the HuffPollster primary page. The calculation below, made in January, still applies under current conditions for today’s election.

For people who watch polls closely, many outcomes are foregone conclusions. We ignore the big wins, and instead look at the close races and the spots of genuine suspense that remain. Sometimes those races are not marquee items (American Samoa, anyone?). But tonight is different for me.

By coincidence, I planned major travel for Tuesday, March 1st. As this post goes live, I am starting a 16-hour-long flight to Hong Kong. My flight is on Cathay Pacific, which appears to lack in-flight wireless. Therefore I will completely miss the evening’s festivities. You’ll have to entertain one another!

This post is on timed release, and is the first of a sequence. I’ll play at being Hari Seldon. Seldon was a fictional figure in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation novels. He had identified laws that predicted the future many centuries in advance. Real-life political forecasting is not at that stage, to put it charitably. However, let’s see if we can manage a lookahead of one day.

I’ve tried to make the comments as well-grounded in polls, delegate rules, and likely reporting times as possible. Of course you are welcome to flay me for any mistakes!

>>>

The evening ahead, Republican side: Based on polls, Ted Cruz should finish first in Texas and maybe Arkansas. Marco Rubio has a shot at Minnesota. Donald Trump should come in first everywhere else.

The big caveat is that very little polling data comes after last Thursday’s debate. The last few days have seen some incredible meltdowns: several governors and a senator have endorsed Trump, and Rubio has gone hard after Trump with both substantive attacks and highly personal insults. Evidently Trump’s infection of the rest of the Republican field is complete. If election results deviate from the polls in either direction, these events might help explain why.

Early in the evening, look for East Coast states with larger margins to be reported earlier. Trump’s better performances should be Georgia (+13% over Rubio), Virginia (+14% over Rubio), and Massachusetts (+23% over Rubio). Massachusetts might get called for Trump fairly early.

Cruz’s best state, and most likely win, should be Texas (median of 7 polls: Cruz 33%, Trump 26%, Rubio 17%). Arkansas might be a close win as well (Cruz 27%, followed by Trump and Rubio 23% each, though that survey is 3 weeks old).

Rubio’s strongest states are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota, and Oklahoma (21-23% each). He might have a shot at coming in first in Minnesota – but not the other states. Tonight is Trump’s night.

Democratic side: Expect some races to be called fairly early for Clinton: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, where she leads by margins of 24-48 percentage points.

Sanders’s one expected blowout is in Vermont, where he leads by 70 percentage points. Polls close at 7 p.m.; expect that race to be called immediately.

Sanders’s other possible wins are, from more likely to less likely, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Massachusetts. If he wins any of these states the margins are likely to be narrow.