I am impressed with the response to my question yesterday. Readers, go see the comment thread. Also, thank you all for the kind words. Yesterd...
Site improvements (and Bayesian jealousy)
Some improvements from Andrew Ferguson: The update date/time above now links to the history graph, and the Obama/Romney numbers link to the map. In the map itself, clicking it generates a popup window with lots of little features, especially if you start right-clicking on particular states. Finally, over to the right, under The Power Of Your Vote, the “Obama/Romney +X%” values now link directly to Pollster.com. Now you can easily compare the median-of-last-3-days-or-7-days’-polls with the original data source.
Short-term predictions are coming soon.
In other Presidential-race news, check out this interesting and aesthetically lovely site, Votamatic. Prof. Drew Linzer at Emory starts from fundamentals-based information to calculate a range of likely possibilities (called a Bayesian prior, where other political science models basically stop). Then he uses all available national and state polls to sharpen the picture, not blur it. I suspect it might weight the prior more than I would (I’m still reading). But generally, it is a logical way to combine general start-of-season knowledge with up-to-the-moment polling. My hat’s off.
At his site is a graphical interface that allows you to sort all the state margins in order. Notice that North Carolina and Indiana have a substantial gap between them. For this reason, breaking past Obama 347 / Romney 191 EV is unlikely.