At The American Prospect: Tweet In the home stretch, I wrote that midterm polling is far less accurate than in Presidential years. Today, in The...
Senate and House final snapshots, 2014
Here are final polling snapshots for Senate races:
Put your own predictions in comments! Some more notes…
The calculations above will test the question of how well we can do with polls alone. As always, we did not do any house-effects corrections or fundamentals-based modeling. This is a polls-only snapshot.
Technical notes: The same methods were used as for the gubernatorial snapshots. The error bars are SEM of the polled demographic. To calculate win probability, I have incorporated an additional possible 2.5% error to account for polling error/bias. To see how many polls were used, see this spreadsheet.
House: Republicans win popular vote by 1.5 ± 2.0%, gain 8 ± 6 seats.
Please give your own predictions in comments. What surprises do you predict?