Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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I am moving my post-election comments on Florida here. This is partly to maintain order and partly because I am starting to wonder whether there is a story here. After chewing over the Berkeley group’s analysis and corresponding with some of you, I have thought of reasons why there is no real county-level anomaly. The essential problem is that the largest e-voting counties have large populations and have no counterpart for comparison. I believe that this problem is insurmountable by any statistical analysis, no matter how sophisticated.