Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Probability of an Electoral Tie
My regular email address works once again. Send your correspondence there.
Charles Cullen writes asking today’s probability of a 269-269 electoral tie. Using decided voters only it’s 3.9% – a lot! With the undecideds assumption it’s 0.4%. In this scenario the newly elected House and Senate would determine the president and vice-president, leading to Bush-Cheney (if the Senate remains Republican) or Bush-Edwards (if the Senate goes Democratic).
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