Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Early exit polls on Drudge (above the title). If you plot them on my brochure graph, their median is around +5% bias. This may regress as Republicans get to the polls, but I think this is a telling sign. Not sure if I will be blogging the returns – just a heads-up for you. I wonder if my prediction was too cautious! That’s what I get for paying too much attention to my email.