Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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I have added two pages to the brochure – a graph to help you calculate for yourself the net bias, and an electoral map.
Political psychologist Manuel M. Frank writes in with a model indicating that I have underestimated the turnout bias. Looking at his work, my original figure of +2.5% agrees with his calculations based on Annenberg interest-level surveys. His work can be read here; he also has additional comments.