Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Possibly K259, B254 (assuming MN, IA, HI, MI). Then Ohio (20EV) – returns here. May come to Cuyahoga County (includes Cleveland) and absentees. Also NV (5EV), but at this point that doesn’t matter.