Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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The meta-analysis has helped me stay rational in this election cycle, but some thought needs to go into future action. The election was close, but in a binary event 0.51 rounds up to 1. Anyway, here are some cogent post-election thoughts from Josh Marshall.