All pain, whose gain? The surprising implications of a new legal theory for redistricting
(cross-posted with my new Substack) Lots of pixels have been spilled on a legal theory once considered fringe, the Independent State Legislatu...
In Monday’s new apportionment, who will lose, Alabama or New York?
On Monday afternoon at 3 p.m., the Commerce Department is expected to release the new apportionment from the 2020 Census. It will be posted here, and there will be a press conference on Census Live. Generally, southwestern states will win Congressional seats; the northeast and California will lose. There’s some uncertainty as to whether Alabama will lose 0 or 1 seat, and whether New York will lose 1 or 2 seats. The Census Project has an explainer. Finally, check out this deep dive into historical trends from CUNY’s Redistricting and You.
Update: And the answer is…neither! There are seven seat changes, the smallest of any year going back to 1910 (leaving out the failed reapportionment of 1920). For an overview see my Tweetstorm. More soon…
News reports are saying the Census’s reapportionment numbers are a gain for Republicans, a loss for Democrats. A short thread on why this is not entirely true – and why the biggest uncertainties lie ahead, in redistricting.
— Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) April 27, 2021
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Hi Sam…I’ve spent some time recently digging into reapportionment. I’m wondering if the weirdly close outcome on the 435th seat (Minnesota v. New York) is going to be challenged, and if so, how soon? I looked up the recent history and only two apportionments had margins like this less than 1000 (1970 and 2000). Do you know of any hive mind on this topic that would know if and how that could proceed? Many thanks…Ian
PS: Here’s a write up I did on New York and Montana before the announcement today: https://stupefied-khorana-12b069.netlify.app/posts/2021-03-29-new-york-and-house-apportionment-in-2020/
Redistricting is the next step after census and reapportionment. What is the best way to seek nonpartisan redistricting–technically, and politically?
In addition to redistricting, I would say the biggest worry for 2022 is who controls the certification (or non-certification) of state elections.
It Republicans regain the House in 2022, and hold it in 2024, I cannot imagine the evermore-Trumpist Republican congressional representatives being willing to certify President Biden’s re-election, or the victory of any Democratic presidential candidate.
In my eyes, the single most depressing development is that 70 percent of Republican voters are convinced the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen.
Democrats have lost the narrative.
@Arctic:
“Democrats have lost the narrative.”
You wish. There’s an old saying: “When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” The Republican Party is too invested to stop digging. The Grand Old Party has become the Grumbling Old Party.