Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
There are so many of these exit polls – just like the campaign season all over again. Time for meta-analysis. I am plotting all that I can find on my graph. Nearly all of them are above the no-bias line. Looking at all of them at once, the median bias seems to be about +3%. This suggests to me that if overall, these polls reflect total voting, OH and FL will end up for Kerry, with margins of 2% by night’s end. (Famous last words…)