Triage and Refocus
A curious inverse law seems to be at work. As politics gets louder and more extreme, public opinion becomes less volatile. As measured by public ...
Early voting data
TargetSmart is tabulating early voting on a state-by-state basis. Move your mouse over the little bar graphs to see 2018 vs. 2014 early-voting-to-date. Basically every key state has fairly large surges in early voting. Maybe not surprising since they were usually not key states four years ago.
But here is something more interesting: combining 42 states, Tom Bonier of TargetSmart reports which demographics have surged the most: young voters and voters of color.
Postscript: commenter ArcticStones reminds me of the thorough tabulation done by Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. It is here!
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TargetSmart’s website is excellent!
However, I am astonished that their data is not more up-to-date. For instance, for Florida they have 2.7 million votes cast as of 29 October (actually through the 28th). Whereas Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project has more than 3.4 million through yesterday.
The same thing applies for many, many other states.
For the most accurate picture of the Early Vote, perhaps one is well-advised to consult both sites.
One of the more intriguing things to me about this is the effects on polling. If I remember correctly one poll was predicting Trump’s victory based on lower people of color turnout. It turns out that the Republican vote for president has been a pretty consistent number. What varied was the vote for the Democratic nominee.