David D. says:

I think there’s a typo in the link titled ‘here’: surely it should be http://math.princeton.edu/~sswang/wang15_IJF_origins-of-poll-aggregation.pdf?

Sam Wang says:

Yikes. Thank you!

Amitabh Lath says:

This is going to do wonders for your h-index.

Sam Wang says:

Thank goodness the h-index cannot decrease.

Amitabh Lath says:

You mentioned Bayesian predictors, specifically Linzer’s Votamatic. One feature of Votamatic is the almost eerie lack of movement. There may be some scatter at the state level but his Obama vs. Romney prediction did not change for several months before the election.
The PEC, by contrast, is full of cliff-edges, such as the one after the first Obama-Romney debate.
Given that Votamatic and PEC both nailed the EV, how significant are the movements of the PEC? Did Romney really have an even chance after that debate?

Matt McIrvin says:

That’s an excellent summary of the action over the past few election cycles. I’ll probably send people to it as a reference on the subject.
Drew Linzer also did remarkably well at calling the 2014 midterm, if I recall correctly. I’m going to be closely watching whatever he does over the coming year.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *