Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
I have added two pages to the brochure – a graph to help you calculate for yourself the net bias, and an electoral map.
Political psychologist Manuel M. Frank writes in with a model indicating that I have underestimated the turnout bias. Looking at his work, my original figure of +2.5% agrees with his calculations based on Annenberg interest-level surveys. His work can be read here; he also has additional comments.