Live thread on Election 2022
Open thread for those who celebrate. 11:03pm: New Hampshire Senate's called for Maggie Hassan (D-incumbent). Her margin appears to be somethin...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Political scientist Matthew Dickinson offers a cogent essay on the difference between a real prediction and electoral “forecasting”.