Live thread on Election 2022
Open thread for those who celebrate. 11:03pm: New Hampshire Senate's called for Maggie Hassan (D-incumbent). Her margin appears to be somethin...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Via James Fallows, whose insights about presidential (and candidate) performances are worth following, here’s an interesting tool: SpeechWars, by Ben Reis. SpeechWars shows, over history, how often presidents have used a particular word in a State of the Union address. Although Obama’s address to the joint session of Congress is technically not a SOTU address, it’s counted here. For example, here are the relative frequencies of the word “war” and “banks” (click image for a high-resolution version):

Does anyone else find it a bit disturbing that peaks in the mention of “banks” are typically followed a few years later by peaks for “war” ?