Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Politics & Polls #208: Election Day 2020

November 3rd, 2020, 2:06pm by Sam Wang

Politics and Polls logoThis morning Julian Zelizer and I went down memory lane…to our 2016 pre-election episode. It was an eye-opener. I talk about elections very differently now. We get into what to look for, what to be concerned about, and how to use polling data without being a passive observer. Take a listen!

→ 1 CommentTags: 2020 Election · Politics · Princeton

Avoiding conflict despite the Electoral College

November 3rd, 2020, 7:41am by Sam Wang

Don’t forget, the states in gold started counting their mail-in votes today or last night! [Read more →]

→ 22 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · President

Geek’s Guide 2020, version 2.2 (Monday 10:30pm)

November 2nd, 2020, 10:07am by Sam Wang

Morning, everyone. One day to go. I’m holding at Fauci 2. You?

Here’s version 2.2 of the PEC Geek’s Guide To The Election. (doc, PDF) State legislative races have been added.

Other useful guides: the PEC 50-State Guide, Taniel’s What’s On The Ballot, and what David Leonhardt is watching.

In comments, please post your favorite places to get information tomorrow. And stay off the Garden State Parkway!

→ 16 CommentsTags: 2020 Election

Redistricting Spitball, Texas style

November 1st, 2020, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Update, 11/3: The federal judge dismissed the case. The votes will be counted! For Election Day, the Harris County clerk has left one drive-through voting center open, at the Toyota Center.

We created Redistricting Moneyball to identify places where votes are exceptionally valuable in their potential to affect Congressional redistricting. The idea was to enhance your activism by showing you where to get out the vote. Texas Republicans have taken the concept in the opposite direction: they are looking to invalidate 127,000 votes cast in Harris County, where some of the most influential voters in the nation live.

It’s a radical gambit. The suppression of votes is not Moneyball, but more like a spitball – against the spirit and rules of democracy. However, there is one advantage. It’s so focused that you may be able to mitigate possible effects by turning out the vote in a very small number of legislative districts. [Read more →]

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Can Montana and South Carolina slip off the Presidential coattails?

November 1st, 2020, 9:05am by Sam Wang

In our polarized political age, downticket races are increasingly driven by partisanship. Yet we still pay close attention to individual candidates – in Senate races, Joni Ernst’s inability to name the price of soybeans, or Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair. Can races be simultaneously nationalized (i.e. track partisan affiliation) and separated from the Presidential race?

Here is evidence that both can happen at once. It points toward the possibility that in close Senate races such as South Carolina, Iowa, and Montana, last-minute phone-banking, canvassing, and even (for Montana) same-day voter registration can be exceptionally valuable in moving a race. [Read more →]

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Senate

Where are you on the Fauci scale?

October 31st, 2020, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Three days to the election. I’d rate myself between 2 and 3 on the Fauci scale. Somewhat complex feelings, so let’s say 2.5 + √-1. (Thanks to Karen Errichetti for thinking of this excellent graphic.)

But seriously, here are my thoughts on what I’m watching on the home stretch. Read it in between phone banking and canvassing. [Read more →]

→ 10 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · President · Senate

Ten proposals for bettering democracy

October 29th, 2020, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

In this year’s election, voters around the nation will decide on proposals to change how democracy works. At the Fulcrum, Sara Swann gives the rundown on ten of those proposals.

We’ve gone into some of them in depth. For example, the Virginia redistricting reform is reviewed over at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. Broadly, all of the ballot measures have positive qualities except for one. The exception is the Missouri measure, which pretty much undoes the “Clean Missouri” amendments of 2018. Around here we call it “Dirty Missouri.”

→ 7 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Redistricting

Behind the curtain at the Fox News Decision Desk

October 29th, 2020, 11:09am by Sam Wang

Politics and Polls logoIn 2012, Karl Rove’s bubble was burst when Megyn Kelly strolled down to talk to the race-calling team in the bowels of Fox. In the current Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I talk with the head of their 8-person decision desk, Arnon Mishkin. Lots of great details here, and it left me with more trust in their process. Plus a few insights into the Iowa and Georgia Senate races. Fun nerdery. Tune in!

→ Post a commentTags: 2020 Election · Senate

Texas talk with Beto O’Rourke

October 28th, 2020, 11:45pm by Sam Wang

In the latest Fixing Bugs In Democracy, Beto O’Rourke and I dive into his efforts to flip the Texas House to Democrats and bring about bipartisan Congressional redistricting. I followed that up with a second guest, Dave Daley. Dave and I talked about Redistricting Moneyball, as well as a new tech tool for citizens to weigh in on their own communities, Representable. Check it out!

→ 2 CommentsTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

Redistricting Moneyball – train’s leaving!

October 27th, 2020, 9:35pm by Sam Wang

One week to Election Day. Time’s running out in various ways. For example, if you haven’t mailed your ballot yet, plan to either drop off your ballot or vote on Election Day. You can do it!

It’s also time to give one last push to state legislative races. [Read more →]

→ 1 CommentTags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting