Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Doubling time of coronavirus deaths, by state

How will we know the coronavirus epidemic is slowing? In the first wave of the pandemic, doubling times of longer than 3 days indicated that shelter-in-place had started to work and/or the virus is not spreading in runaway mode.

If doubling times are getting shorter, then the spread is accelerating. If the doubling time does not get to 3 days, this implies some slower form of spread that is growing but not out of control. An example would be family gatherings (relatively small growth), as opposed to open restaurants and other public indoor spaces (uncontrolled spread).

For an explanation and comment thread, see this April 2nd, 2020 post.

Doubling times over the last 60 days are below. The number of deaths is cumulative total over the entire pandemic.

For richer data coverage, see the New York Times (go to “states” and find your state).