Doubling Time of Coronavirus Deaths and Pandemic Control
These graphs update automatically every day. Explanation and comment thread: see this April 2nd, 2020 post. -Sam Wang
How will we know the coronavirus epidemic is slowing? One of the least-biased measures is how long it takes for total deaths to double. “Doubling times” of longer than 3 days indicate that shelter-in-place is starting to work and/or someday the virus is spreading less efficiently.
To see a larger version of each graph, right-click and view the image.
Doubling-times by U.S. geographic region
Doubling-times in individual geographic region
Doubling times in selected individual states
Doubling-time trends around the world
Thanks to Ben Deverett for designing the plots, Lucas Manning for implementing the pipeline, and Johns Hopkins University and health authorities worldwide for the data. GitHub: https://github.com/Princeton-Election-Consortium/covid-19
| Doubling Time | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Deaths | Now | Last Week |
| US | 756951 | 68.6 d | 40.3 d |
| AK | 802 | 8.4 d | 47.1 d |
| WY | 1298 | 14.8 d | 9.9 d |
| NH | 1613 | 21.3 d | 17.1 d |
| CO | 8713 | 21.8 d | 17.5 d |
| OR | 4655 | 26.6 d | 21.5 d |
| WI | 9602 | 33.2 d | 22.2 d |
| NV | 7778 | 33.4 d | 43.0 d |
| KY | 10137 | 34.7 d | 48.4 d |
| MO | 13016 | 34.7 d | 19.6 d |
| MN | 9006 | 38.3 d | 19.3 d |
| KS | 6565 | 38.6 d | 36.0 d |
| OH | 25282 | 38.9 d | 30.7 d |
| UT | 3313 | 44.3 d | 19.7 d |
| VA | 14225 | 44.5 d | 27.9 d |
| CT | 8806 | 48.6 d | 60.0 d |
| NM | 5137 | 49.0 d | 26.7 d |
| CA | 72922 | 52.1 d | 32.5 d |
| MA | 19117 | 52.1 d | 27.9 d |
| NY | 56323 | 54.8 d | 31.9 d |
| WV | 4568 | 55.6 d | 40.6 d |
| IN | 16976 | 57.4 d | 26.0 d |
| MT | 2438 | 58.8 d | 22.3 d |
| TN | 16463 | 60.3 d | 52.2 d |
| IL | 28901 | 60.9 d | 25.3 d |
| AZ | 21486 | 61.0 d | 35.4 d |
| WA | 8908 | 61.5 d | 37.2 d |
| RI | 2884 | 62.0 d | 60.0 d |
| NJ | 28119 | 63.8 d | 49.8 d |
| ME | 1215 | 65.0 d | 17.5 d |
| MD | 10999 | 67.4 d | 50.9 d |
| VT | 387 | 68.3 d | 17.0 d |
| ID | 3682 | 70.7 d | 36.7 d |
| NC | 18356 | 72.7 d | 45.2 d |
| PA | 31992 | 74.7 d | 24.4 d |
| GA | 28580 | 76.8 d | 47.1 d |
| MI | 24003 | 86.8 d | 18.6 d |
| MS | 10178 | 87.2 d | 42.3 d |
| DE | 2124 | 92.1 d | 80.5 d |
| ND | 1832 | 93.4 d | 24.6 d |
| LA | 14649 | 96.4 d | 82.6 d |
| SC | 13898 | 99.2 d | 62.4 d |
| AR | 8522 | 103.3 d | 40.8 d |
| SD | 2270 | 127.9 d | 18.5 d |
| AL | 15879 | 147.0 d | 59.5 d |
| TX | 72439 | 155.0 d | 68.3 d |
| NE | 2786 | 184.0 d | 48.3 d |
| FL | 60418 | 287.3 d | — |
| HI | 959 | — | 178.5 d |
| IA | 7069 | — | 13.6 d |
| OK | 10879 | — | 31.8 d |
| DC | 1193 | — | 18.3 d |