Presidential prediction 2012 (final… stay tuned)
Now that all the polls are in, it’s possible to perform variance minimization, a simple procedure to identify the range of polls that can be us...
Presidential Meta-Analysis update
Welcome, Daily Dish and Ezra Klein readers. An overview of the fall landscape is here. Our long-range projection of the Obama November win probability, based on polls alone, has been at 87-89% since July. At the end of September will come a more exact projection. The suspense is in the Senate and House.
The topline above is today’s snapshot. There’s a little glitch with OH and WI data, which we’ll soon fix. Thanks to reader Froggy for catching it.