Last-minute activity
Lovely unseasonable weather out here on the East Coast. Get out there to a swing House district!
Some systematic error in polls is inevitable. Mathematically, it’s highly likely that the election will be less close. Which way? I will analyze that later today. Right now it’s time to act while the sun shines!
To learn more about where to go, here is a valuable resource: Vote Maximizer.
Disclosure: The Electoral Innovation Lab is an independent 501(c)(3) organization. It is separate from Princeton University. My efforts there are also separate.
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Retired math/physics teacher, too much time on my hands. Looking at Wisconsin, which feels like the key state to me, as in ’16, I just did a basic county-by-county spreadsheet on the total early votes published (e.g. Adams–3,513), and if I apply the rough percent from 2020 that each county gave each candidate (Trump-Biden, ignoring Jorgensen) the early count comes out Trump 58%-42% total early votes. It’s Harris, of course, not Biden, and I have no idea about cannibalism county-by-county, party-by-party, but do you get the same figures, and would this difference if correct indicate anything significant?
Sam, are the pills you use showing the proper variance? Just a quick look at PA polls show an aweful lot of them in the 47%to 48% range. You would expect a normal distribution with a sigma of 3ish, if there were no correlations between them. One word that comes to mind is herding. Another is fraud. One should really teach them about blind analysis techniques to remove bias.
I’ve been canvassing for weeks so my conscience is clear. That said, if Anne Selzer’s final Iowa poll is to be believed and they she’s the best, something must be up with most polling. Get out there like we are 3 points down on the 10 yd line, 20 seconds to go!
That was an exciting poll (10/28 – 10/31) but then Emerson (11/1 – 11/2) came out with Trump +10. Selzer has an excellent reputation, but then again so does Emerson, I think.
I think emerson uses a weighting that is not employed by selzer