Final results: Warnock (D) and Ossoff (D) win, giving Democrats 50 seats in the Senate and control of the chamber. (NYT)

In Georgia, first Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. Now we have two competitive Senate races. Polls show the Democratic candidates, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, leading their opponents by a few points. If they pull off wins (and even if they only come close) they can thank early voting – and trends that may make 2020 for Georgia what 2008 was for Virginia.

First, let’s look at the data. Unlike the rest of the country, general-election polls in Georgia did pretty well. In late October, pre-election surveys showed medians of Biden 49% to Trump 48% (11 polls, margin of 1.0 +/- 1.1 points, median +/- estimated SEM). The outcome was Biden 49.5%, Trump 49.3%. Trump overperformed more than Biden, which gives some indication that undecideds or third-party supporters broke towards Trump. In any case, the polling error was no more than one point.

In the regular Senate race, Ossoff and Senator David Perdue (R) were tied at 47 points each (n=8, margin Ossoff +1.0 +/- 1.0). The outcome was 47.9, Perdue 49.7. So Perdue overperformed by 2 or 3 points.

Now, the last week of runoff polls show leads for both Democratic candidates: Ossoff 50%, Perdue 47% (n=8, median margin of Ossoff +3.0 +/-1.3%) and Warnock 49%, Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) 47% (n=8, median margin of Warnock +1.0 +/-0.8%). There are few undeclared voters: 3% in the Ossoff-Perdue race, and 4% in the Warnock-Loeffler race. Ossoff is at the critical 50% threshold, and Warnock is within a point of that. So at a minimum, they both have very good shots at winning.

With races this close, it will all come down to whether Republicans can turn out their in-person votes today. The false accusations of fraud by President Trump and lack of focus on the Senate races seem unlikely to help their side. Then again, Georgia Republicans are good at turning out in runoff elections.

(Note that we might not know the outcome of the election tonight. Biden was not declared the winner in Georgia until Friday, November 6.)

Democrats’ leads opened up by a few points starting in mid-December, coincident with early voting. As Charles Stewart at MIT has pointed out, early voting and mail-in voting have proceeded at a high pace. Indeed, it looks like an amazing 91% of November voters will cast ballots in the runoff. Compare that with 56% or 57% in past Georgia runoffs.

Here’s the early and absentee vote statistics for GA, as of yesterday. pic.twitter.com/VlTxRAlxBN

— Charles Stewart III (@cstewartiii) January 1, 2021

Georgia voters know how consequential their votes are. With at least 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Senate in 2021, these two races will determine whether Republicans maintain control, or whether Democrats can achieve a 50-50 tie, thereby gaining control.

In another factor driving turnout, over 200,000 voters cast ballots who did not vote in November. That’s made possible by a consent decree that overrode a state law requiring runoff voters to be registered and cast a ballot in the general election. Stacey Abrams and her organization, Fair Fight Action, as well as other Georgia organizations, took full advantage of this consent decree.

Could such an approach could be taken in other states? It would have to be tailored to the specific state. For example, Florida requires organizations to register with the state, which makes mobilization harder. On the other hand, Florida does have a voter initiative mechanism which could change that rule, or implement other rules.

Finally, I wonder if Georgia is moving in the same direction as Virginia a decade ago. Growth in Virginia suburbs has placed that state firmly in the Democratic column. Yet in 2008, Obama barely won the state. In Georgia, demographic trends are heading toward making it majority non-white by 2033. You can explore this using this great data feature at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (the map works in Microsoft Edge, but is broken in Chrome).

Georgia Republicans will doubtless try to stave off the effects of demographic change in the next battle: 2021 redistricting. Republicans control the governorship, legislature, and state Supreme Court. Fair-districting activists have a few tools available to them, mainly public input and journalistic oversight. Last time around, the legislature held public hearings and committed to supporting communities of interest. If they do so again in 2021, then citizens may find their voice using tools like Representable.org. To read more about the possibilities or to get involved, see the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.