The 2024 PEC Geek’s Guide to the Election is here. Let’s use this entry at the Fixing Bugs in Democracy site for an open thread. (No subscription required, it’s free.)

Liveblog below.

November 5, 8:52pm: Remember, reporting is uneven. Faster-reporting: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. Slower: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada.

10:39pm: Generally speaking, Presidential and Senate races are coming in slightly more Republican-leaning than pre-election polls.

Trump will win Iowa by 12 points. Looks like that Selzer poll was a fairly big miss. Seems to be a win for stratification of polls thought.

Generally, I am impressed with the technical quality of the New York Times predictive models.

11:47pm: In 7 House races, the margins are running about 3 points more favorable to Republicans than pre-election polls. Two races in the Geek’s Guide (PA-08, IA-03) are going narrowly Republican at the moment. This is still a small sample, and it is not clear yet which party will end up in control. But it does argue against Hopium-level overperformance for Democrats.

November 6, 12:44am: Looking at House returns in 29 races that are mostly done counting, it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2) and Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8). Control of the House is still up in the air. There is a chance the House will be even more closely divided than it is now.

The Presidential race still depends on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out.

Good night.