State polls – fresher than you think
As you can see, the Meta-Analysis has taken a downtick. This suggests that the race has leveled off – or may drift toward parity a bit. Notably...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
Click any tracker for analytics and data
Tomorrow (Friday) at noon, I’ll give a talk in Kosuke Imai and Dustin Tingley’s political methodology seminar. If you’re nearby, you’re welcome to attend. Of course, the math will all be included. The blurb is here (PDF).
Update: Here’s another local event, happening next Tuesday: a panel on the reliability of state polls featuring both pollsters and academics, including Andrew Gelman, author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. I hear the panel will be webcast. If so I’ll post a link.
Could you tape it and post it on Youtube?