Politics & Polls #73: What does the North Carolina gerrymandering decision mean?
Our podcast’s now available on Spotify! Today, Julian Zelizer and I discussed the North Carolina court decision. What does it mean for refor...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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I’ve received correspondence from a Democratic activist taking me to task. I pointed out that his Democratic Congressman was likely to win by a large margin. He thought that my saying this would breed complacency. Putting aside the idea that very many Democrats this election season are complacent, there is a critical point I must make.
Efficient resource allocation is directed at the idea that you want the maximum benefit for a fixed amount of resources. In this case, if you have 50 hours (or $50) to spend, where should it go? As longtime readers of this site know, this is the point of the jerseyvotes calculation. Based on this reasoning, in the case of Princeton’s local Congressional district (NJ-12), perhaps the most effective GOTV action is to go to Pennsylvania for the Senate race. Sestak (D) and Toomey (R) are neck-and-neck.
The choice is not between voting and not voting. The point is that you’re probably reading this site because you care about politics, and want to maximize the return for your time or money spent. This is especially important if you are worried, since too much emotion can cloud judgment.
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