Comment thread #1 – and a little live blogging

November 6, 2012 by Sam Wang

9:34pm. CBS: New Hampshire called for Obama. Erm, election’s probably over. And unskewers are full of it. On the same note: Florida is Obama 50.01%, Romney 49.99% with 81% counted. <0.5% is recount territory (Brennan Center).

9:25pm. Electoral-vote.com totally overwhelmed. We were gone, back now.

Indiana Senate race Donnelly over Mourdock 48-46% with 63% counted. Right in line with poll medians. We’re headed for Democratic gains in the Senate.

9:19pm. Pennsylvania for Obama. Evidently pollster skew is less than 5%. (Plot it in the Geek’s Guide!)

8:25pm. Florida appears to be 50-50 with 50% counted. If that holds up, it’s right in line with polls. Recount, ZOMG!!1!!eleven! But not much to reassure those who think pre-election polls are skewed.

8:20pm. Big margins in OH (for O, early voting) and VA (for R, GOP counties) not informative. However, Donnelly (D) 50-44 over Mourdock with 27% counted in IN? Hmmm, that’s interesting.

8:14pm. Watching ABC, reminded how much I hate TV coverage on Election Night. We know more the day before (polls) and the day after (full results). Halfway-counted Virginia? Watching Anderson Cooper’s discussion. No offense to Henrico County, don’t care…

7:40pm. OK, guys – listen…Exit polls don’t tell you anything – they can be off, and get adjusted later to match actual returns. They are a research tool for the media to construct stories.

Also, large states like VA – these are too large to give accurate results in the early evening. Watch NH as fast-counting indicator of national result. See Geek’s Guide.

48 Comments

Nervous wreck says:

I know only one percent has been counted so far in Michigan but leaning Romney? My head is spinning. I live here!

Khan says:

Calm yourself!
GOP counties are almost always the first to report as they have fewer people and are quicker to report.

dhogaza says:

You’ve been called for Obama, calm down and have a drink.

Stephanie says:

Huffpo just announced that Romney won Delaware. What?

dhogaza says:

CNN has obama stomping DE, just give up on HuffPo, OK? 🙂

don in fl says:

mcmahon spent lots of money for two losses.

LizP says:

PA just went Obama – Fox and MSNBC

SoleburyJim says:

PA just called by NBC for Obama. So much for being in play for Romney! So much for my fears about voter suppression!!

NEPAblue says:

NBC just called PA for Obama.
duh!

dhogaza says:

Networks calling PA for Obama … Romney’s desperation play after the reality of the situation in OH sunk in.
OK. OH. We love ya. Good, warm, Obama thoughts being channeled your way.

don in fl says:

nh?

Khan says:

Fox just called Wisconsin for Obama.
I think the President just needs Iowa and it’s over.

JMan says:

Dr. Wang,
What server are you running on.

Olav Grinde says:

Dr Wang, are the states reporting how many provisional votes have been cast?

Khan says:

States called for the President.
NJ
NY
MI
PA
WI
He needs Ohio or Iowa/NH and we’re done I believe.

Stacey says:

Hey Dr. Wang,
If you could not EVER go offline again that would be awesome for my blood pressure. Thanks!

Sam Wang says:

Mine too, Stacey.

JoePeartree says:

Glad to see Dr. Wang will not need to eat a large bug

LizP says:

CBS just called NH

Steve16748 says:

So much for New Hampshire being an early indicator. I think though, we can take Florida at 50-50 as validating the polls and relax. Thank the Goddess that we won’t need Florida. Well I remember the exit polls saying Gore had won Florida in 2000! True but the results were hijacked. By the way, Ralph, if you could possibly be watching, well I won’t say it.
Thanks for this site Sam, everyone congratulates you, you are polling 100%

mar wolf of MI says:

NH!
& btw –not to be taken for granted –MI!

Khan says:

At this rate Obama is going to landslide Romney. Wow.

dhogaza says:

Nate Silver is getting cautiously optimistic about FL. Very cautiously.

Ross C says:

NH for Obama! Yay! Skew that!!!!

Howie Weiner says:

Great job everyone NH, WI called come on Iowa!

Prairie Pundit says:

According to David Gregory, Obama would have lost PA if Clinton hadn’t closed for him. “Clinton moved the map.”

mar wolf of MI says:

We. Are. Democrats.

Prairie Pundit says:

NBC just called the MA senate race for Warren. WOOOOOOT!

NEPAblue says:

Elizabeth Warren – so very glad to add her to the Senate. Ted Kennedy would be so proud!

Emerald says:

I’m almost feeling secure enough to turn on the TeeVee machine and watch Rachel. The polls, apparently, were right again, and math still works.
Tell us it’s safe, Sam!

NEPAblue says:

Have been watching Rachel since 6pm. Upbeat.

Khan says:

Joe Donnelly won!
Wow that rape comment just handed the Senate to the Democrats!

Olav Grinde says:

On a humorous note, here is a message from Anonymous to Karl Rove. Maybe he took it to heart?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98frqrKFnQ8

Southpaw says:

Congrats to Prof. Warren!

Sam Wang says:

Go to the new thread, guys!

Greg Britten says:

CNN has called MA Senate race for Warren (D)

Skip says:

NH just called for Obama by NBC

Khan says:

We are seeing the polls might have grossly understated Obama’s advantage.
Gallup is done as a reputable organization. Done.

Dannyboy says:

I am scared for Ohio. :/

Shawn Huckaby says:

Welcome back up, Sam. Being vindicated is the best revenge.
Those dems, always wanting revenge!

Shawn Huckaby says:

As of 11:00 eastern, CNN & MSNBC report Romney camp not returning phone calls…

Shawn Huckaby says:

And via twitter:
West Wing Reports @WestWingReport
UVA Ctr. for Politics, (WWR’s partner) now says Obama likely to win Virginia (13 electoral votes).

Skip says:

Ohio declared for Obama. Election is over. Obama wins. 274 and counting with Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Alaska still out.

Shawn Huckaby says:

And Denver Post now calling Colorado for Obama as well (my home state!).

Shawn Huckaby says:

Now it’s all about seeing just how close Sam (and Nate) will be…

Shawn Huckaby says:

Amazingly on Fox they’re still not conceding. Seriously.

Shawn Huckaby says:

Charles Krauthammer now on Fox: Romney was up 5% nationally with one week to go until Superstorm cost him the lead. A tactical error, “no need to reinvent the party”.

Kevin M. Zimmerman says:

Elizabeth Warren won in Massachusetts! <—- very happy about this.

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