Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Dear readers, I am getting lots of mail on my brilliant prediction. Thanks to all of you on both sides of the aisle. For many opponents of Bush, this election has been a wrenching event, not unlike a death in the family. This election was a highly significant political event that we will be feeling for decades. I will post some of your mail later. For now, I post a thought-provoking note from someone opposed to my views, along with my reply, here. It has the tonic effect of returning this site to its original purpose, hardcore quantitative analysis. With that, I must now attend to my day job…