Obama’s convention speech
Text just now from a senior House Republican who gave me permission to tweet this: “We were supposed to make that sort of speech."— Erick Eri...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Today at 10:00am Eastern, I’ll be on WHYY-FM’s Radio Times with Mary Cummings-Jordan for an hour-long program on polls and the campaign. (Did you miss it? Archived here.)
If you’re in the Princeton area, at noon I’ll be giving a talk in the American Politics Seminar. My focus will be this year’s race, polarization, and a little gerrymandering too if I have time. Come on by if you can!
For those who missed it, Radio Times is rebroadcast at 11 PM. Might be the perfect antidote to the cacophony of post-debate punditry!
Archived here: https://soundcloud.com/whyy-public-media/polling-the-electorate
Since the debate thread seems to be closed …. As I recall it was about a week ago when IPSOS Reuters dumped a bunch of polls and the meta-margin dropped over a point. Today, they released another bunch of polls and it bounced back to 2.4 – up a point. So – was there really that kind of swing going on, or did one bad/random bunch get negated by another bad/random bunch? Or was it some other polls coming in and knocking out the older IPSOS numbers? I know Sam says things are stable, but they sure jump around inside the upper and lower control limits a lot.
I so wish I was close enough to come hear you lecture. Say, TIME magazine online is running a poll: Who Won the Debate? My husbear wondered aloud why Trump is hacking it, because there the Don seems to have won, but if Giuliani says he lost, he lost. The debate was surprising, and that’s what I’d hoped. Want to be part of a poll? http://time.com/4506217/presidential-debate-clinton-trump-survey/ PECers, tell your peers 😀