Triage and Refocus
A curious inverse law seems to be at work. As politics gets louder and more extreme, public opinion becomes less volatile. As measured by public ...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
Click any tracker for analytics and data
There are swing Congressional districts all over the nation. And right here in Princeton, we have an exceptional density of close races.
Within 25 miles of Princeton are three Congressional districts in which October poll medians [NJ] [PA] show the two candidates within 1 or 2 percentage points of each other:
NJ 7th (Malinowski-D vs. Lance-R-inc), NJ 3rd (Kim-D vs. MacArthur-R-inc), and PA 1st (Wallace-D vs. Fitzpatrick-R-inc). And there are several more races that are rated almost as competitive.
In these districts, getting out the vote for your preferred candidate is exceptionally powerful. In terms of influencing the probability of who controls the House in 2019, turning out one vote in these districts is ~100 times more powerful than casting your own vote in a less-competitive district.
It’s going to rain this weekend, but that’s an even better time to canvass – everyone will be at home!
Wow! That must be some map. It’s taking forever to load on my Laptop.
http://www.machlis.com/elections/CongressionalDistricts/#/?address=08540&radius=40250