Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 EV.

The eight weekend polls span September 5-7 and are the most recent available from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Diageo/Hotline, USA Today/Gallup, CNN, Zogby Interactive, ABC/Washington Post, and CBS. They draw upon over 11,000 respondents. Two polls have been added, added in italics.

Based on the correction to pre-convention state polls I provided last week, applying the national margin as a correction to the Meta-Analysis gives a median EV estimate of McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 EV. The 95% confidence interval is McCain [268-338] EV, Obama [200-270] EV.

Omitting data from Zogby Interactive, a poll that is known to be of low data quality, makes no difference in the margin and therefore no difference in the EV estimate or 95% confidence interval.

Matched comparisons with the six polls previously reported gives a bounce for McCain of 9.5 +/- 2.2%.

Sources: Pollster.com, RealClearPolitics.