The concentration of pivotal races in Arizona and Nevada is astounding. Viewed in terms of individual voter power, I can’t recall anything like it. And election deniers on the ballot will compound the impact in 2024 and beyond.

Two Senate races in these states are central to both parties’ plans for 2023. They both show margins that are well within the polling error we’ve seen in the last few elections. In addition, Arizona and Nevada are home to no fewer than 7 competitive congressional races. In Nevada alone, the Cook Political Report sees 3 out of 4 Congressional races are “lean“ or closer. With a current 50-50 Senate and 220-212 House, these races are critical.

Beyond the usual questions of political control, on the ballot are the capacity to hold honestly administered elections at all. Secretary of State candidates Jim Marchant and Mark Finchem lead a nationwide slate of candidates who question the fidelity of the 2020 election. Arizona governor candidate Kari Lake and Nevada attorney general candidate Sigal Chattah have similar views.

Per-vote influence in Arizona and Nevada

Because these states are so closely divided, voters in both states have enormous leverage compared with anyone else in the nation. Here is my calculation of their per-vote influence over an outcome-determining dispute in the 2024 presidential election:

Arizona and Nevada voters are three times more powerful than North Carolina voters, nine times more powerful Pennsylvania voters, and hundreds of times as powerful as my puny vote in New Jersey. If their votes were dollars, my vote would be a Weimar-ear deutschmark.

For this reason, election irregularities in Arizona and Nevada are exceptionally concerning – and there’s a lot of potential for irregularity. In Nevada, 10 out of 17 county election supervisors have resigned (also see this extensive story in the Nevada Independent). Anyone thinking strategically should appreciate the long-term consequences of these disruptions.

Your influence, mathematically optimized

Both Democrats and Republicans benefit from having a functioning national democracy. Mathematically, your donations in Arizona and Nevada are more effective in these races than anywhere else in the nation. For more on how to make a difference, see today’s Substack.