Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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Regarding the ongoing Florida voting fraud controversy, S. Doershuk, who has expertise in demography, makes a constructive suggestion: “It might be instructive to examine some similar counties in Georgia and Alabama, particularly those which border on north FL, to see if the same pattern can be found. Given the ‘bright red’ nature of both border states, I wouldn’t expect anyone to have bothered to tamper with vote totals there, so a comparison could be instructive.” This is excellent. If any of you has this information I would be very interested.