Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Senate: 48 Dem | 52 Rep (range: 47-52)
Control: R+2.9% from toss-up
Generic polling: Tie 0.0%
Control: Tie 0.0%
Harris: 265 EV (239-292, R+0.3% from toss-up)
Moneyball states: President NV PA NC
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I was very wrong about FL and about the overall offset. The outcome is somewhere between the decideds-only and the with-undecideds medians. However, for months I have been saying that it was about Ohio, and it is. The margin there seems headed for about 1%, without absentee or provisional ballots. Another squeaker – though things are not entirely over yet.