Who are these likely voters, anyway?
After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registe...
Running list of brochure errata and edits here. All are fixed in the current version, downloadable here (PDF). Apologies for these small errors. Page 1: where it says “215 EV” it should say “230 EV.” Page 4: NM margin is Bush +2.7 ± 1.7%, not +3.1 ±1.5%. I now have a Kerry win probability >50%. Page 4: My predictions are added in parentheses. Page 6: The bias calculator is updated to extend to a larger range to the right. Old one still OK – but you may need this.