Voting for Nader

October 15, 2004 by Sam Wang

Colorado Democratic Senate candidate Ken Salazar has come out clearly against Amendment 36, the electoral vote splitting initiative. It seems likely to fail.

I have been asked to evaluate a tactical-voting idea proposed by Nader supporters, votepair.org. The idea is for swing state voters to agree to change their Nader vote in exchange for a vote change in a non-swing state. Nader is a much smaller factor this year than in 2000, but it is still worth considering how much value you get for your trade. (This relies on the same calculation that I did on Wednesday the 13th to ask where you should get out the vote.)

Regarding Nader: Today the NY Times says that Nader is a threat to the Democrats. Possibly, but this is not supported by the data! In the nine states listed in the article, I looked at 20 polls since October 1 with both two-way results (Kerry-Bush) and three-way results (Kerry-Bush-Nader). Nader does not change the outcome in any of these – and several are ties.

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