For a few of you here’s a version with no math at all:

The Presidency and Senate control are nearly certain to go to the Democrats. The House is very much in play, but Democrats may have a slight advantage. This is why Nancy Pelosi and Bill Kristol are speaking as they are. This is also why smart money is flowing downticket – where it can make a difference to either side.

It feels like the campaign has hit a plateau (see the Meta-Margin, RAND survey, and House generic Congressional data). Or maybe it’s just my knee acting up. Let’s see what happens next.