A final unskewing
Mother Nature is our best teacher and the only one who is always right. – Viktor Hamburger, biologist In yesterday’s Los Angeles Times...
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This morning I was struck by the new polls on Senate races. Good news for Democrats across the board, it seems. This is going to be tight, but it appears the “Republican brand” has taken a beating…
Most striking is Electoral-Vote.com’s bird’s eye view of today. Based on the polls, they currently rate the likely outcome as: 52 Democrats, 46 GOP, with two races tied.
This is going to be an exciting election!
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Sep18-s.html
I do have a post on the moochers and job creators (http://politicalomnivore.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-47-and-romney-gaffe.html). As the Meta–Analysis and gets fixed and we wonder if the latest video release will have any results, there’s a RAND poll of people who have changed their candidate (changed their minds) here: https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#shifts-between-candidates and the betting markets show some movement: http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual
This is contrasted with the polls which (traditionally) don’t show much reaction to a gaffe. So this is a good case study as to how those other metrics apply to the vote-EV model.
Always interesting reading. I eagerly await the Electoral Challenge!
I notice that Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEigh.com also have the Democrats as favourites for a Senate majority. His prediction is 51 — 49.
As Dr Wang has said repeatedly: it’s a knife-edge election.
Thanks for the correction and update.
Black swan: Romney’s fundraiser video and his press conference last night? Might this qualify as a black swan event?
So far I only see PEC saying it’s likely Dems retake the House, though.
I think things are looking better and better for the dems each day. At the moment it still looks like the Republican’s will retain control of the house, but the overall direction has to be encouraging. Or am I just revealing my underlying biases? 🙂
I’m really looking forward to a revised, over-arching analysis of the House races. I really don’t see anyone providing that. Perhaps Dr Wang will soon chime in again on this topic?
My impression is that more and more Democratic candidates for Senate are opening up a lead, while races where Republicans previously held a comfortable lead are becoming competitive.
Whatever happens with the polls, it seems inevitable that there will be a lot of very, very close races.
The decisive factor will be turnout.