The end for Coleman?

January 23, 2009 by Sam Wang

Two recent events suggest that Coleman’s contest of the Minnesota Senate election result is nearing an end.

First, his last best hope, a motion to have 12,000 rejected absentee ballots brought into the Election Contest Court, has been denied. These ballots contained 654 ballots selected by the Coleman team for re-examination. Extensive coverage is here at The Uptake, official court documents are here, and color commentary by blogger WineRev is here.

The re-examination of all 12,000 ballots seemed to be a desperation move anyway. It is not known how they will divide. Coleman needs to win them by a margin of 226 or greater. These ballots would need to break at least 51-49 in Coleman’s favor to give him any chance at all. (This is essential: if they are drawn from a 50-50 sample, the odds against picking up 226 votes is 53,000-1 against.) But rejected ballots are more likely to favor Democrats, so it’s not clear that somehow de-rejecting these ballots will do much. But the court ruling takes a step toward closing even that window.

Second, Norm Coleman has accepted a job with the Republican Jewish Coalition, suggesting that he is under financial strain and/or is preparing for a likely final defeat.

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