May 5, 2016 – I never let this go live. Instead I kept writing. I have little willpower! I am publishing this for entertainment, and for the record. – Sam

In the two major parties, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in very strong positions. At >40% levels of support, 6 out of 6 Republican front-runners have gone on to win the nomination, and 6 out of 7 Democratic front-runners. The exception was 2008, when Hillary Clinton was at 42% but was eventually overtaken by Barack Obama. As of today she’s 9 points stronger, at 51%. So at this point, the most likely November matchup, by far, is Clinton v. Trump.

Seeing as how the academic term is about to start, I wonder if I could please be excused for a few months. Needless to say, if anything changes I would come back.

Trump at 41 in ABC this AM. Since 80, all GOP candidates over 40 pre-Iowa have won.@SamWangPhD, @demfromct pic.twitter.com/QORFpjyazU

— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) January 26, 2016