Protected: Two ways to estimate primary outcomes without polls (transcript)
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Presidential candidates ranked according to their usefulness in a bar fight
…because it’s Friday night. Time for a break from serious analysis. Instead, some drinkin’ and brawlin’. Check out this amazing list from BitterEmpire.com.
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They were going to do a list of which GOP Debate moderator would be best in a bar fight, but decided that Megyn Kelly could take the rest of the field with one hand tied behind her back.
BKS – may I pass along that idea to the writer of the bar fight piece? (I’m the editor of the site that published it.) I don’t want to be a jerk and poach an idea but the writer of the bar fight piece (Ali Davis) and I are right now laughing at this very concept. If you have a place of your own you’d write it or just don’t feel like giving up the idea or want cold hard cash for the idea, I totally understand! But wanted to check. Also, Sam, thanks for the link!
This is great. PEC comment sections are awesome, but not usually places to workshop a piece.
I am a bit skeptical about Sanders ranking so high…but he does have a certain deranged-no-f***s-left-to-give quality.
Steal it. Please.
Sam, Bernie has natural-born New York values. Don’t f.ck with him!
The thing about a bar fight is you have to really want to hurt someone. The older you get the more you realize some people just need to be thumped. Go Bernie!
bks At LEAST hold out for a contribution to ACT BLUE!
Their theory about the prowess of Kasich is unexpected. I’d flip him with Martin O’Malley, who is exactly the kind of guy you’d expect to also be a master of mixed martial arts, but nobody pays attention.
And Jim Webb actually killed a guy. Also, Joe Biden (not the real Joe Biden, but The Onion’s Joe Biden).
Christie isn’t the one you want in this barfight. He’s all “it wasn’t me, it was this guy, David Wildsomething, he’s been following be around since high school, but I don’t really know him well, he was the one hitting on your girlfriend, not me, I swear. And anyway, I gotta go, I have to see people in New Hampshire…”
I guess it is all about perspective. I would find Christie useful in a bar fight because beating the, lets be polite and say “stuffing”, out of him would be cathartic.
While the Republican primary does have an element of “Hunger Games” to it a more physical contest could be fun in a Keystone Cops kinda way. I see Christie and Rubio facing each other and pawing away at the air like a pair of bunny rabbits. Trump covering his hair obviously. Jeb Bush, hands to his mouth looking shocked. Kasich would be unaware a fight had broken out. Cruz and Carson team up to file lawsuits for the rest of the field who all claim to have been damaged by the spectacle.
Speaking of bar fights, new SC poll, Trump 32, Cruz 18, …
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/SC-GOP-PP-1.16.16.pdf
Trump +4 Cruz -3 over same poll one month ago.
Good point, 538 Refugee. Along with being older and not giving a cr@p about who you p*ss’ off, Hillary has lots of pent-up anger about how she’s been treated for 3 decades. That makes for a lot of “I don’t give a sh*t” attitude when the fight gets started. She’s holding back right now to win the nomination. But once she’s got it, the gloves comes off and look out who ever wins the Rep nomination. He’s toast.
Same measured attitude to win the election. Then the same measured attitude to win a second term. I don’t anticipate a change before that. Just give Trump/whoever a chance to blame it on monthly timings if she gets angry? Women are SO emotional doncha know?
Being a veteran of many such encounters, I would instantly pick Chris Christie for his size and anger. He’s from New Jersey, and has undoubtedly had experience in barfights. I do not care for his politics. For a second choice, I would take Martin O’Malley. He is in better physical condition than any other candidate. And, as far as political philosophies are concerned, we are kindred spirits.
So when does your the statistical modeling for 2016 elections start happening? Are you sitting this one out?
The usefulness in a bar fight of some of these candidates may depend on whether the bar is located in a state that allows firearms in bars.
In general, you’d probably do well to avoid being downbarrel of anyone who’s recently released a photo of himself buying a gun…