October 20th, 2016, 11:20am by Sam Wang
Donald Trump has made it clear that if he loses on Nov. 8, it is because the election was “rigged.” He has warned that there might be widespread voter fraud that will favor Democrats. But does this threat have any basis in reality? Or is the real threat new voter identification laws that have the potential to disenfranchise significant portions of the population? Where did these restrictions come from? Julian Zelizer discusses these questions in episode 16 of Politics & Polls with special guest Ari Berman, a senior contributing writer for The Nation magazine. Listen!
P.S. I’m not on this one – scheduling conflict. Julian and I will be together for the next one, in which we talk about the religious right with our colleague Kevin Kruse.
October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang
If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.
Tags: 2016 Election · President
October 19th, 2016, 9:07am by Sam Wang
Yesterday I visited a journalism class. The question arose of how to interpret the L.A. Times/Dornsife/USC poll, which has been unusually favorable to Donald Trump. I said that polls should be treated the way reporters treat other sources of information: get confirmation from a second source. In the case of polls, find two other sources and take the median. The reason is that a polling result is not a pure number descended from heaven; it reflect the professional judgment of one pollster…and such judgments can vary.
Because the Dornsife/USC poll is an outlier compared to other surveys, its other impressive qualities are often overlooked. Let me get into those a little bit. [Read more →]
Tags: 2016 Election · President
October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang
With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party voters. Meanwhile, Trump is focusing entirely on core supporters, who tolerate or endorse white nationalism and racially-driven sentiment. His supporters are committed Republicans – but they are considerably outnumbered by other voters.
At their July convention, Clinton, Obama, and other Democrats said that good Republicans can vote for Clinton and still remain good Republicans. This approach implicitly says that voters are free to split their tickets for Clinton and for downticket Republicans.
Despite this permission slip from Democrats, partisan loyalty appears to be as strong as ever. And the fortunes of a Clinton Presidency appear to be highly dependent on that loyalty. That loyalty allows us to estimate that a Clinton win by more than 3% would probably be associated with Democratic control of the Senate. And a Clinton win by more than 8% would favor a Democratic House. Currently, the optimal way to help/hurt Clinton is in Senate races. [Read more →]
Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate
October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang
Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing story line can alter the trajectory of the Clinton-versus-Trump race. The primary exhibit is national polls, which have not yet shown any measurable aftermath from the Access Hollywood video or Debate #2: [Read more →]
Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate
October 15th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang
Last night, David Daley and I appeared at our local bookstore, Labyrinth, to talk about gerrymandering: its effects on democracy, how technology has made it worse, and what can be done to prevent it. It’s is the subject of his new book, Ratf**ked. Thanks to Labyrinth Books and to Princeton Public Lectures, the discussion is archived for your viewing pleasure! Watch on Vimeo.
In the discussion, we talked about the role of math in diagnosing partisan gerrymanders. I have developed simple statistical tools to help provide a legal standard. These standards are available for your use at gerrymander.princeton.edu.
Tags: Princeton · Redistricting
October 14th, 2016, 9:27am by Sam Wang
The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day:
I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does reveal that after the first debate Hillary Clinton gained 4 percentage points on Donald Trump. The smaller bumps are probably noise.
Oddly, the Access Hollywood video and ensuing sexual-assault scandal for Trump have not had a consequential effect yet on the Presidential race. To my thinking, the more important question is whether it will enhance the Democrats’ ability to tie Trump to downticket races.
There’s a story going around that Senate races are flat or trending Republican, even as the Presidential race is moving toward Clinton. Although it is true that several races have recently become competitive, the overall picture shows a fair amount of similarity. See the PEC aggregated-polling snapshots: [Read more →]
Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate
October 14th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang
Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different. [Read more →]
Tags: 2004 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President
October 14th, 2016, 12:57am by Sam Wang
Bob Dylan has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature. Awesome. He is a big part of the America I love. To echo Josh Marshall, this news makes me optimistic.
The choice of Dylan breaks a drought in U.S. writers since Toni Morrison won in 1993. The award to Dylan makes sense in the light of this essay, which points out that winners often exemplify the spirit of their country, and U.S. writers often can’t be pigeonholed that way. Dylan is both a great songwriter and quintessentially American, and fits with the Nobel committee’s priorities.
Lily, Rosemary and The Jack of Hearts – Bob Dylan from Lívia Pio on Vimeo.
October 13th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman is the most knowledgeable person about House districts and elections I know. We chew the cud about the election – and 2017. Listen now!
After you are done…find a swing district near you.
Tags: 2016 Election · House