Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 09: Biden 375 EV (D+6.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.8%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Today’s electoral vote histogram

Today's electoral vote histogram

This is a snapshot of current polls, and addresses the hypothetical question of who would win an election held today. Probability distribution of all possible outcomes calculated from current state polls. The central dark blue bars represent the 95% confidence interval (including pollster-to-pollster “house effects” as part of the variation). The tails are plotted in green.

At nearly all times, this snapshot shows a very likely win for one candidate or the other. The Princeton Election Consortium does not report this probability, which is usually greater than 99%. Instead, the banner reports an estimated probability of a win on Election Day, in November. That quantity includes the possibility of movement between the time the polls were taken and Election Day.