Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Aug 14: Biden 356 EV (D+6.1% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+4.0%), House control D+3.5%
Moneyball states: President AZ NV AR, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

State-by-State Probabilities

A list of current state polls used by this website can be found here (CSV). Note that polls are further filtered to obtain the most recent polls, one per pollster, with emphasis on whichever poll the pollster gave top billing (i.e. Trump-v-Clinton or Trump-v-Clinton-v-Johnson-v-Stein).

Win probabilities can be found here (CSV). From left to right the columns are:

  • Democratic win probability today (%)
  • current median polling margin (Democratic>0)
  • win probability adding 2% to Democratic nominee
  • win probability adding 2% to Republican nominee
  • two-letter state code
  • November win probability (random-diffusion model)

Many other files can be found in the data directory. Eventually we will have more documentation and a prettier front-end.